The No. 1 seed Miami Heat head to the Wells Fargo Center Thursday to play No. 3 seed philadelphia 76ers in a crucial Game 6 of their Eastern Conference semifinals playoff series. Miami leads the series 3-2. Tip-off is set for 7 pm ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Heat vs. 76ers odds and linesand make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Miami routed Philly 120-85 Tuesday in Game 5. The Heat outperformed the Sixers in all “four factors” and outscored Philly in 3 of the 4 quarters (they tied in the 2nd quarter). The Sixers had a 14-15 assist-to-turnover ratio while the Heat had a 26-14 assist-to-turnover ratio.
Heat SF Jimmy Butler has been the best player in the series, averaging 26.6 points on 53.4% shooting with 7.4 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game and a plus-26 net rating.
The home team has won and covered the first 5 games of this series. The Over/Under (O/U is 2-3.
Heat at 76ers odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:25 am ET.
- Money line (ML): Heat +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | 76ers -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Heat +2.5 (-112) | 76ers -2.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: 207.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
Heat at 76ers key injuries
- SG Tyler Herro (ankle) questionable
- PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) out
- SF Caleb Martin (ankle) questionable
- SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
- PF P.J. Tucker (calf) questionable
- PG Gabe Vincent (knee) questionable
- VS Joel Embiid (facial fracture) questionable
Heat at 76ers picks and predictions
Heat 105, 76ers 102
LEAN HEAT (+110).
I like Miami plus the points, but can’t fully get there on the Heat’s ML because it’s not a big enough payout. If Miami’s ML was north of +130, I’d take a stab, but I’d rather grab the Heat’s spread and in-game the Sixers plus points for a “middle” if Miami goes up double digits.
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Against the spread
There’s value in the HEAT +2.5 (-112).
They are owning the 76ers -2.5 (-108) in turnover rate and rebounding. The most important thing in playoff basketball is accumulating possessions and Miami has a plus-24 rebound differential for the series and has committed 10 fewer turnovers.
Shooting comes and goes in basketball and these teams are tied in effective field-goal shooting for the series. However, Miami was the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA during the regular season, 3rd in defensive turnover rate and had a much better rebounding rate than Philly.
Since the Heat should win the battle of possessions comfortably, I’ll take my chances that Miami’s elite 3-point shooters hit a few big shots in Philly Thursday and at least keep Game 6 close.
TAKE tea HEAT +2.5 (-112).
PASS because my prediction aligns with the market’s projected score so there’s no value for me in this total.
If anything, I “lean” Under 207.5 (-115) since it’s an elimination game for Philly and this series has a 92.3 possessions per 48-minute pace while the average NBA team is playing at a 95.8 for these playoffs.
Furthermore, these teams have a combined 46-60 O/U record vs. teams with a winning record.
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