NASCAR Atlanta 2022 odds: Surprising Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 picks by model that called Larson’s wins

The 2022 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 will take place on Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway. After four drivers won the first four races on the NASCAR schedule, almost every team in the 2022 NASCAR Atlanta starting grid will feel like it has a chance. The new “Next-Gen” car was designed to create more parity, and Austin Cindric and Chase Briscoe have both become first-time winners with the equipment playing field leveled. Can NASCAR at Atlanta produce another first-time winner? The green flag drops at 3 pm ET.

Kyle Larson, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney are 10-1 co-favorites in the 2022 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 odds from Caesars Sportsbook, but Larson, the defending champion, is the only one of those drivers with a win this season. There are 12 more drivers listed at 20-1 or lower on the NASCAR at Atlanta odds board, so we’re seeing books acknowledge the sport’s shift. Before scouring the 2022 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 starting lineup and making any 2022 NASCAR at Atlanta predictions, be sure to see the latest 2022 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

In the 2021 season, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. The model also nailed Kyle Larson winning the NASCAR All-Star Race at 5-2 in Texas and hit Larson again at the Ally 400 for another 5-2 payout. Then, it called Chase Elliott to win at Road America for a 5-2 payout.

He also called Larson’s win at Texas for an 11-4 payout and his win at Kansas for a 9-4 payout in back-to-back weeks before nailing Larson to win the season-finale in Phoenix to claim the NASCAR Cup Championship. In total, it called five of Larson’s wins during a historic season and has gone 7-3 on its head-to-head matchup predictions to start the 2022 NASCAR season. Anyone who followed his lead on those plays saw huge returns on his NASCAR picks.

Now, the model simulated the 2022 NASCAR Atlanta race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected 2022 QuikTrip 500 leaderboard.

Top 2022 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 predictions

One surprise: the model is high on Tyler Reddick, even though he’s a 15-1 long shot in the latest 2022 NASCAR at Atlanta odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. After winning back-to-back NASCAR Xfinity Series championships in 2018 and 2019, Reddick was given a full-time ride with Richard Childress Racing in 2020. He had a strong season with nine top-10 finishes.

Last year, he improved on that mark with 16 top-10s and wound up making his first appearance in the NASCAR playoffs. Reddick finished 13th in the standings and looks even more dialed in coming off a third-place finish last week in Phoenix. Reddick finished sixth in his last start in Atlanta and will be a threat to work his way towards the front again at the 2022 QuikTrip 500.

And a massive shocker: Joey Logano, one of the Vegas favorites at 10-1, stumbles big-time and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values ​​in this open 2022 QuikTrip 500 starting grid. The 2018 NASCAR Cup Series champion currently sits atop the 2022 NASCAR standings, but he’s used stage success and other bonus opportunities to get to that point with two finishes outside the top 10 in his first four races.

The 31-time Cup winner has never been to victory lane in Atlanta Motor Speedway and finished outside the top 10 in 11 of his 16 career Cup starts there. He finished 14th in Las Vegas, NASCAR’s first race on a 1.5-mile oval in the Next-Gen car, and collected a season-low 27 points. It was the only race this season he’s failed to lead a lap. Until we see Logano dial his 1.5-mile setup in, he’s a fade as a co-favorite.

How to make 2022 NASCAR Atlanta picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with 2022 NASCAR Atlanta odds of 15-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 2022? And which long shots make a run at the checked flag? Check out the latest 2022 NASCAR in Atlanta odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2022 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 leaderboard, all from the model that correctly predicted five of Kyle Larson’s wins last season.

2022 QuikTrip 500 odds

Joey Logano 10-1
Ryan Blaney 10-1
Kyle Larson 10-1
Chase Elliott 11-1
Kyle Busch 11-1
William Byron 12-1
Denny Hamlin 12-1
Alex Bowman 14-1
Kevin Harvick 15-1
Tyler Reddick 15-1
Martin Truex Jr. 15-1
Austin Cindric 18-1
Chase Briscoe 18-1
Kurt Busch 20-1
Ross Chastain 20-1
Brad Keselowski 22-1
Bubba Wallace 22-1
Aric Almirola 25-1
Austin Dillon 30-1
Christopher Bell 30-1
Erik Jones 40-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 40-1
Daniel Suarez 50-1
Noah Gragson 60-1
Chris Buescher 60-1
Michael McDowell 60-1
Cole Custer 60-1
Justin Haley 75-1
Corey Lajoie 80-1
Harrison Burton 100-1
Ty Dillon 100-1
Todd Gilliland 125-1
Greg Biffle 250-1
David Ragan 300-1
Josh Bilicki 1000-1
Cody Ware 1000-1
BJ McLeod 1000-1